This study deals with the analysis and interpretation of case studies in view to defining rules to
an objective and statistical evaluation of ensemble flood forecasts from the European Flood
Alert System (EFAS). First, we investigate EFAS forecasts on a flood-event basis. The aim is
to investigate the ability of EFAS flood forecasts based on Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
to provide earlier warning, comparatively and/or complementarily to the forecasts based on
deterministic weather forecasts. Secondly, a statistical analysis of the flood events forecasted
over the flood-prone periods of summer 2005 and spring 2006 is performed. The analysis
focuses on i) the statistical evaluation of hits, misses and false alarms as a function of the
number of EPS-based simulations exceeding a given EFAS flood alert threshold and ii) on the
comparative analysis of gain in preparedness (early forecasting) when operational alert rules
are applied on both forecasts based on probabilistic and deterministic weather forecasts to
define a potential flooding situation. The analyses were performed over a number of
representative points selected throughout the Danube and the Elbe river basins.
RAMOS M-H.;
THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;
BARTHOLMES Jens;
2007-12-05
OPOCE
JRC41103
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC41103,
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