Modelling the Effect of EU Policy Reforms on Farm Investment Behaviour
The objective of this paper is to analyse farm strategies and investment behaviour in a sample of
selected Italian farm-households facing different scenarios, with a particular focus on the effects of
the 2003 CAP reform. Models were built for individual households using multi-criteria dynamic
programming, including investment choice. A total of 24 farms were selected for modelling, all
located in Emilia Romagna (Italy). The simulations show a strong effect of both policy and markets
scenarios on household investment, though the latter seems more relevant than the former. However,
decoupling itself shows minor effects in the majority of cases. The models offer useful insights about
the mechanisms of adaptation and their implications for the effects of policies. The main drawbacks
are in the heavy data collection and computational requirements, and in the related difficulties to
achieve a satisfactory degree of representativeness.
GALLERANI Vittorio;
GOMEZ Y PALOMA Sergio;
RAGGI Meri;
VIAGGI Davide;
2009-07-20
Research in Agricultural and Applied Economics
JRC49332
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