On the Distribution of Unannounced Interim Inspections in Time - A Hybrid-sequential Approach -

Unannounced interim inspections of nuclear facilities in the European Union have been discussed already for some time by Euratom and IAEA experts. Therefore, and since they pose challenging mathematical problems, they have been analyzed in detail in the framework of a project carried through in the JRC-IPSC Ispra in collaboration with Universität der Bundeswehr München. A game theoretical study is performed under the assumption that the inspector wants to minimize the time between the start of an illegal activity, if there is any, and its detection. Also, it is assumed that the plant operator takes his decisions sequentially, i.e. he decides at the beginning of the inspection period (in general one year) only if to start an illegal acitivity immediately or not, in the latter case again after the first inspection and so on. Of course more and rather technical assumptions are made in order to specify the model. As a result of the analysis, among others optimal inspection strategies in a State and the expected detection times in nuclear facilities depending on the total number of interim inspections in a State and the error of the second kind probability are determined, and the tradeoff between these two parameters is discussed.

AVENHAUS Rudolf;  COJAZZI Giacomo;  KRIEGER Thomas; 

2009-10-30

Publication Office of the European Union

JRC50671

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC50671,