The Benefit of Hindsight; An Evaluation of North Sea Herring Management Plans from 1995 to the Present

In 1995 North Sea herring was estimated to have declined from previous high of around 1.5 million to 400,000 tonnes, the point at which significant reduction in recruitment had previously been observed. The response to this was to cut the fishery by reducing the human consumption TAC by 50% and reduce the catches of juvenile herring for reduction even further. In addition the European Commission proposed a management plan to be followed. Since then this management plan has been revised twice. Elements of these plans have included target fishing mortality, 15% constraints on inter-annual change in TAC, nevertheless due to other clauses the management has resulted in an increase and a subsequent decrease of 50% in TAC during the last 15 years. We assess potential economic impacts under alternative management scenarios and discuss the lessons that can be learned for the design of management plans. The analysis includes the simulation of different strategies, including the impact of stock dynamics, and uncertainties in the estimation. In addition, the impact on the UK economy of the fluctuation in the TAC, in terms of value, employment, will be assessed.

SIMMONDS Edmund;  ANDERSON John; 

2011-01-04

International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET)

JRC59751

http://oregonstate.edu/dept/IIFET/publications.html,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC59751,