Inoperability Input-Output modelling: Inventory optimization and resilience estimation during critical events

The input-output approach proposed by Wassily Leontief is regarded as a key tool for the quantitative analysis of the interdependencies between different interconnected sectors within an economy, especially in today’s highly interactive networks of producers/service providers. In recent years, Leontief’s model was also extended in order to assess the resilience of economy sectors and critical infrastructures to disruptive events that may affect one or more sectors and propagate to others according to their vulnerability, reaction times and centrality to the overall economy. In this context, a key factor towards the mitigation of monetary losses is represented by preparedness, which is associated to a large extent to the availability of inventories, able to ensure extended continuity of product/service delivery in spite of the temporary partial or complete inoperability of some sectors. Building on an approach based on the dynamic inoperability input-output model with inventory, originally proposed in (Barker and Santos 2010), in this paper we introduce a method for the estimation of the resilience parameter relevant to the description of the system’s inoperability in the aftershock. Furthermore, we formulate an optimization problem and propose an algorithm to determine how a proper sizing of each sector’s cumulative inventory level can enhance the overall resilience to selected critical events. The simulations shown in the present paper have been performed using a software tool developed in house for quantifying the economic impact of critical infrastructures and economic sector disruptions.

GALBUSERA Luca;  AZZINI Ivano;  JONKEREN Olaf;  GIANNOPOULOS Georgios; 

2016-10-17

ASCE

JRC94869

2376-7642,   

http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000861,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC94869,   

10.1061/AJRUA6.0000861,