Probabilistic modelling of the effect of new gas infrastructure to security of supply

The aim of our research work is to develop a European gas transmission system probabilistic model to analyse in a single computer model, the reliability and capacity constraints of a gas transmission network. The probabilistic prototype software ProGasNet, which is under our development, is based on generalization of the maximum flow problem for a stochastic-flow network model in which network elements can randomly fail with known failure probabilities. Concerning security of supply, network elements, for example gas storages and compressor stations, are expressed by a multi-state system. To analyse the vulnerability of the gas network, various what-if supply disruption scenarios is necessary to analyse. However, the situation becomes more complex, when the gas network is large and when effects of various gas infrastructure project proposals (for example new LNG terminals) should be evaluated and compared. We present our experience with a statistical approach based on a risk ratio, which can help users with analysing of large number of probabilistic results.

PRAKS Pavel;  KOPUSTINSKAS Vytis; 

2015-11-06

ASMDA International Society and the Department of Statistics and Insurance Science of the University of Piraeus, Greece.

JRC96101