Knowledge Synthesis and Foresight Work Package 1 - Network of Experts
The 2018 EU Bioeconomy Strategy aims to develop a circular, sustainable bioeconomy for Europe, strengthening the connection between economy, society, and environment.
It addresses global challenges such as meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations and the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement.
A circular, sustainable bioeconomy can be a core instrument for the Green Deal in the post-COVID-19 era, making the EU more sustainable and competitive.
In this context, the EC (Joint Research Centre in collaboration with DG Research and Innovation) created an ad-hoc external Network of Experts (NoE) through individual contracts to contribute to the EC’s Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy with forward-looking analysis needed for exploring possible scenarios towards a sustainable, clean, and resource-efficient bioeconomy, with a focus on climate-neutrality and sustainable development. The first work package concerned knowledge synthesis and foresight.
This report presents the results of a collaborative foresight process which elaborated four scenarios for the future EU bioeconomy until 2050:
Scenario 1: Do it for us - proactive policy, Paris target nearly achieved (2 °C global temperature increase by 2100), no societal change (Business As Usual trend for consumption);
Scenario 2: Do it together – integrative policy, Paris target fully achieved (1.5 °C global temp. increase by 2100), fundamental societal change (towards sustainable consumption);
Scenario 3: Do it ourselves - societal action, Paris target missed (global temperature increase 2.5 °C by 2100), fundamental societal change (towards sustainable consumption);
Scenario 4: Do what is unavoidable - reactive policy, Paris target clearly missed (3.5 °C global temperature increase by 2100), no societal change (Business As Usual trend for consumption).
Finally, this report presents initial reflections on transition pathways gained from these scenarios in 2050, and insights for the future of the bioeconomy in Europe, and abroad, with a focus on implementing a circular, sustainable, and transformative BioWEconomy, not only in the EU, but globally.
FRITSCHE Uwe;
BRUNORI Gianluca;
CHIARAMONTI David;
GALANAKIS Charis;
MATTHEWS Robert;
PANOUTSOU Calliope;
BORZACCHIELLO Maria Teresa;
STOERMER Eckhard;
AVRAAMIDES Marios;
Fritsche, U., Brunori, G., Chiaramonti, D., Galanakis, C., Matthews, R. and Panoutsou, C., Future transitions for the Bioeconomy towards Sustainable Development and a Climate-Neutral Economy - Foresight Scenarios for the EU bioeconomy in 2050, Borzacchiello, M.T., Stoermer, E. and Avraamides, M. editor(s), Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-28414-7, doi:10.2760/469550, JRC123532.
2021-04-12
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC123532
978-92-76-28413-0 (online),
978-92-76-28414-7 (print),
OP KJ-01-21-001-EN-N (online),
OP KJ-01-21-001-EN-C (print),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC123532,
10.2760/763277 (online),
10.2760/469550 (print),
