The role of building insulation and low-carbon heating systems in 2030 and 2050
Energy scenarios that achieve a reduction of around 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990, endorse a rapid reduction of fossil fuel use in buildings in the EU. On average, these scenarios foresee a 60% reduction in oil and coal use and a 30% reduction in natural gas use in all buildings by 2030 compared to 2019. The main challenge is that these reductions in fossil fuel use and related greenhouse gas emissions must happen soon. Taking the energy scenarios together with the envelope renovation ambition in the Renovation Wave strategy, we have projected the necessary evolution of heating in buildings to meet our 2030 climate goals. Our analysis quantifies the steps needed to support the conclusion of the Renovation Wave strategy that fossil fuels will disappear from heating and cooling.
If improvements are mainly to the thermal integrity of buildings, a reduction in heat demand of around 15% can be achieved by 2030. However, the reduction of oil use needs to be four times as high (-60%), and natural gas use twice as high (-30%), so envelope renovations need to be complemented with renovations that decarbonise heating systems, switching them away from fossil fuel.
Our study quantifies the extent of renovation needed for switching heating systems from fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives. By 2030, at least 40 million existing dwellings should switch their fossil fuel boilers to low carbon heating alternatives, mostly heat pumps.
NIJS Wouter;
TARVYDAS Dalius;
TOLEIKYTE Agne;
Nijs, W., Tarvydas, D. and Toleikyte, A., EU challenges of reducing fossil fuel use in buildings, EUR 30922 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-45223-2, doi:10.2760/85088, JRC127122.
2021-12-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC127122
978-92-76-45223-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 30922 EN,
OP KJ-NA-30922-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC127122,
10.2760/85088 (online),
