Local conflict, population dynamics and climate anomalies in Sudan and South Sudan

This report explores the association between climate anomalies, population dynamics, conflict and organised violence in Sudan and South Sudan, at the sub-national level and for the years 1989-2015. The analyses are conducted using a spatial approach and with geocoded information on organized violence events, climate anomalies and population dynamics. Our results indicate a positive correlation of temperature anomalies with conflict and organised violence at the local level. Precipitation anomalies also positively correlate with organised
violence, but to a lesser extent than temperature anomalies. We further explore the climate-security nexus in rural and urban environments in the two countries. Urban areas appear more vulnerable to the risk of organised violence, with the latter positively associated with temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as with positive net migration. In less densely populated areas, violence is associated with climate anomaly values, though the correlation is lower than in densely populated areas. These results are also confirmed by the analysis
based on the number of violent events. Finally, we observe a strong temporal dependence of violent events at the sub-national level.1
(1) 1This technical report is derived from the case study analysis on Sudan and South Sudan contained in McMahon et al. (2021), as part of
the Climate Change Induced Migration (CLICIM) project.

CONTE Alessandra; MINORA Umberto ; MIGALI Silvia; NATALE Fabrizio

2022-06-22

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC128367

978-92-76-53483-9 (online) , 978-92-76-53482-2 (print)

1831-9424 (online) , 1018-5593 (print)

EUR 31117 EN , OP KJ-NA-31117-EN-N (online) , OP KJ-NA-31117-EN-C (print)

10.2760/135990 (online) , 10.2760/662704 (print)