Projections for the period 2021-2071
Europe has been witnessing an ageing population for several decades. As older individuals typically require more medical care, this demographic trend, combined with improved socio-economic conditions, is driving up the demand for health services. EU Member States therefore need to strategically plan their healthcare workforce, which is complex as it involves various interconnected factors such as the demographic characteristics and health status of the population, the age profile of the health professionals' and decisions on public health spending.
This report presents the projections for the number of doctors and professional nurses in the 27 EU Member States for the period 2021-2071, obtained using our supply and demand model for the healthcare workforce (SANDEM). SANDEM provides a long-term perspective at EU level and can support EU Member States to build resilient healthcare systems in the transition to a longevity society.
Our findings reveal that if inflows and outflows remain constant as in 2021, the number of doctors and nurses in the EU would increase. However, this increase would still fall short of the demand projected in scenarios that consider demographic changes and either individuals' actual use of health services or their health status. Our projections also confirm that population ageing increases the healthcare workforce demand. However, if ageing is accompanied by improved health and a reduced per capita disease burden, the demand would decrease enough to more than offset the increase.
BERNINI, A., ICARDI, R., NATALE, F. and NEDEE, A., Healthcare workforce demand and supply in the EU27, Publications Office of the European Union, Ispra, 2024, doi:10.2760/7520726, JRC139503.
2024-12-05
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC139503
978-92-68-22175-4 (online) , 978-92-68-22176-1 (print)
1831-9424 (online) , 1018-5593 (print)
EUR 40120 , EUR 40120 (print) , OP KJ-01-24-155-EN-N (online) , OP KJ-01-24-155-EN-C (print)
